In April 25th of 2022 the Defense Secretary of the US, Lloyd Austin, in a speech given in Poland, near to the border with Ukraine, said that the aim of his country regarding the Ukraine-Russia conflict was to weaken Russia, to bring harm to its government and its people and bragged that since 2015 they, the United States, had been training Ukrainian troops. The picture was detailed some days later by a US top officer, brigadier general Joseph Hilbert (head of the 7th Army Training Command in Europe), who told the press that “over the last seven years, the U.S. has trained some 23,000 Ukrainian soldiers inside the country, a $126 million effort, with training provided mostly by American National Guard troops”[1] and that it has been taking place at the Yavoriv military base in western Ukraine.
[1] Mitchell, Ellen, US ramps up training of Ukrainian forces,on The Hill, 05/04/22.
Now, the question to ask is if such an aim is being or is likely to be achieved, in other words, if at the ending of the war Russia will be effectively weakened, if the Russian state as a result not only of the battlefield war but of the economic, the diplomatic and the public relations[2] wars will become less than it was before the war started.
[2](in the mainstream media, in the Internet, in the social media)
Well, let’s see. In a very brief an answer, in first place, in the battlefield, there is no doubt that Russia is having a devastating win by destroying, slowly and patiently but without pause or hesitation, the Ukrainian military, accomplishing its announced purpose, which was to exterminate the Ukrainian Nazis and to demilitarize the country, which also means that the remaining nation will have to be a neutral state, not allowing it to join NATO. Besides, as it is well known, the soaring involvement of the North Atlantic alliance together with the EU by supporting Ukraine in the military, in the economic, in the diplomatic as well as in the PR, has pushed the Russian government to increase its military capability, calling for a mobilization of 300,000 reservists plus 80,000 volunteers, extending its defense budget and its defense industry, this latter in terms of quantity and quality (for instance, its hypersonic missiles, already used successfully during the war). Yet more, because of the already on course application of Finland and Sweden to join NATO, Russia has taken steps to develop defensive forces along the border with Finland (Karelia and Murmansk), which also means defining targets in both applicants’ territory.
Meanwhile, in the economic aspect, the extraordinary and uncountable measures adopted against the Euro Asiatic country by the collective West, including acts of terrorism (the blow up of the Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines), has not only failed but hit back to them, especially to Europe. So, as in these states prices of goods have hike up, mainly because of the rise of energy prices, industrial production is falling because of the same reason, as long as the cost of energy soars it makes more difficult to sustain its prewar levels, making them less competitive in the international markets. Besides, the Russian currency, the Ruble, has strengthen, its energy resources sales have switched to other markets letting it keep its prewar pace and even increasing its revenues. The same is happening with its internal production of goods, manufactured and agricultural, for it has had to get by without Western and Japanese goods forced by the circumstances, driving the country to somehow find its way back to the renewal of its national manufacturing. But, perhaps, the most interesting aspect of the Russian resilience has been its incredible resistance to the finance sanctions imposed by the West. Reporters and foreigners living in Saint Petersburg, in Moscow and in Crimea – for instance – witness how its citizens have not perceived those sanctions not affecting their daily lives, not to forget the outstanding work done by Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank of Russia, who no doubt had been preventing and thus preparing to countermine the imposition of sanctions long before they took place.
This said, of course it does not mean that Russia is not suffering the consequences of war, but they are being far less than it was expected not only by the Western leaders but by the Russians themselves. Indeed, very recently the IMF report on the state of the world’s economy, predicted that for this year, 2023, the Russian GDP will grow by 0.3 per cent and for the next year, 2024, it will grow even more, up to 2.5 per cent.
A similar trend is going on in the context of the international relations, having the purpose intended by the West, to isolate Russia, completely failed.
What the present situation is showing us is a scenario, an unexpected one, with a more powerful Russian state and, on the opposite, a weakened West on the economic, the military and the international relations framework, retaining some predominance only on the mainstream media outlets and the social media, although losing it by every minute passing.
Arrived to this point and getting back to the beginning of this article, it all seems to indicate that what is really happening is utterly the contrary of what Mr. Lloyd Austin proclaimed it was going to occur.
For those of you familiar or interested in ancient history, this conflict may bear a resemblance or somehow recall us about the aftermath of the epic wars between Rome and Carthage. After the three so called Punic wars that put Rome to the edge of its complete and ultimate annihilation, with Hannibal at the doors of the virtually isolated city, with its italic neighbors (Gaul, Sabines, Samnites) joining the invader troops against them, exhausted but victorious, the Romans became a more powerful nation, more than it was before those long lasting wars and, let’s not to forget, it also resulted in the total destruction of the mighty Carthage.
Message to the West: do bear in mind the lessons from history.
Marco Rodríguez-Farge Ricetti